The More Equal Kyoto Five
In the report titled "The German Kyoto Protocol Hoax" we saw the reasoning behind Germany's support of 1990 as the Kyoto base year. For some of East Germany's former comrades, however, 1990 was not the optimal Kyoto base year, because they were already in transition to market economies. The breakup of the Soviet block had resulted in dramatic reductions in CO2 emissions before 1990, which means that 1990 as the Kyoto base year would have put a number of East European countries at a considerable disadvantage. In the UN document "Framework Convention on Climate Change, REVIEW OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF COMMITMENTS AND OF OTHER PROVISIONS OF THE CONVENTION", special indulgences were granted to gain the support of these nations. On page five (5) of this document, the base year and dispensations are specified:
D. Base year
6. The year 1990 should be the base year for the estimation and reporting of inventories. According to the provisions of Article 4.6 of the Convention and decisions 9/CP.2 and 11/CP.4, the following Annex I Parties, that are undergoing the process of transition to a market economy, are allowed to use a base year or a period of years other than 1990, as follows:
Bulgaria: to use 1988
Hungary: to use the average of the years 1985 to 1987
Poland: to use 1988
Romania: to use 1989
Slovenia: to use 1986
Should anyone still believe that these years were selected arbitrarily, a graph of CO2 emissions for these nations, the data for which were kindly provided by the US DOE, will quickly dispel any doubts as to their provenance.
Missing from the DOE database are CO2 emissions statistics for Slovenia before 1992. An examination of the UN Greenhouse Gas Inventory Database shows that Slovenia is a Kyoto no-show, submitting only one report for 1990, having failed to submit its 1986 base year report and reports from 1991 through 1998. Another Kyoto truant is Bulgaria who failed to submit a report 1996.
Most notable, is the absence of any data from Romania in the UN Kyoto GHG Database after 1994. Romania is the only Annex I nation (those with emissions targets that count) to have ratified the Kyoto Protocol, which makes it the darling of the greenhouse industry. However, rather than being Kyoto's teacher's pet, Romania is in fact its leading juvenile delinquent. Perhaps Romania believes that, having been declared amongst the saved, it no longer has any need for prayer and abstinence or, in the language of the UN's Kyoto bureaucracy, forms and GHG mitigation. If it were Romania's intention to sell some of the Carbon credits that they have accumulated from their imploding economy, they are not doing the prerequisite paper work.
Using the DOE data, the following table shows the CO2 reductions achieved by the Kyoto Five at the end of 1998 from their respective base years:
According to the US DOE, global CO2emissions in 1990 were 6,096 Million Metric-tons of Carbon. Expressed in Kyoto metrics this would be 22,336,911 Giga-grams of CO2 (1), which is certainly a more impressive number. Ignoring the other minor GHG, the Kyoto target of a 5.2% reduction from the 1990 CO2 emission levels, would equate to 5,779 Million Metric-tons of Carbon per year, a value which was passed in early 1988. Rounding down, to the year 1987, for which CO2 emissions were 5,701 Million Metric-tons of Carbon or 20,889,555 Giga-grams of CO2, yields a slightly more ambitious target for reduction of GHG, without any need to resort to a 5.2% fudge factor. The question that naturally occurs, therefore, is "Why not use 1987 as the base year and dispense with the 5.2%?" The most compelling answer is that the greenhouse industry has absolutely no intention of stopping at a reduction of 5.2% in GHG. Their first objective is to sell 1990 as the base year along with the initial 5.2% reduction. It is difficult, indeed, to avoid the conclusion that Kyoto has absolutely nothing to do with climate control and everything to do with political control. The test of such a conclusion will come when Kyoto is ratified and its initial objectives realized. The obvious next step for the greenhouse industry is then to announce that the damage, caused by the forces of reaction and greed, was even greater than their models predicted and that more extensive reductions are required. In such an event, the only thing standing between humanity and the long dark night of a Luddite hegemony is the President of the United States and the 67 American Senators required for treaty ratification.
By: Miceal O'Ronain
(edited by jeb)
1) The atomic weight of Carbon is 12.0107 and CO2 is 44.0095, therefore CO2 is 27.29115% Carbon by mass. To convert Giga-grams of CO2 to Million Metric-tons of Carbon, multiple by 0.2729115 and divide by 1000. To convert Million Metric-tons of Carbon to Giga-grams of CO2, divide by 0.2729115 and multiple by 1000.